This year, the automobile industry has been challenged by the supply chain. At present, the shortage of automotive chips is widely affecting the normal production of vehicle factories. Now, the "core shortage" has not eased, and the "battery shortage" has come again. Beginning in the second quarter, new energy vehicles with long-term sales began to encounter a crisis of battery supply shortage.
The shortage of market demand has made power battery manufacturers the darling of the capital market. Taking Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited as an example, as of the close of July 13th, the total market value exceeded 13 trillion yuan. On the one hand, the market and capital are both improving, and on the other hand, the supply of power batteries for new energy vehicles is insufficient.
Market status:
Battery supply becomes a new bottleneck
Tucki, Weilai, Tesla and other new energy car companies mentioned in unison this year that battery supply will become the "bottleneck" in the second half of the year. Previously, in order to get the battery smoothly, Xpeng Motors CEO He Xiaopeng was exposed to be in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited for a week in the second quarter. Although this incident was later denied by He Xiaopeng, it also confirmed the existence of "battery shortage". Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, said at the shareholders’ meeting held in late May this year that the recent urging of customers "made him unbearable".
The tight supply of power batteries has long been a harbinger. In February last year, Audi publicly admitted that e-tron was temporarily discontinued due to insufficient supply of power batteries; In the same period, Jaguar I-PACE was also exposed to production suspension due to the supply problem of LG power battery. This year, Tesla CEO Musk bluntly said that the battery "how much the supplier gives, how much Tesla will buy". At the beginning of March this year, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, made a special mention of the topic that "the battery supply chain will become the biggest bottleneck" in the earnings conference call, and roughly estimated that the battery shortage would affect about 7,500 vehicles in the second quarter.
At present, the production capacity of many power battery manufacturers has been overloaded. Yiwei Lithium Energy revealed in the recent announcement that the company’s existing venues and production lines have been running at full capacity, and the demand will still be in short supply in the past year.
Probe into the cause:
The production and sales of new energy vehicles have soared.
According to industry analysis, one of the main reasons for the "battery shortage" is the rapid expansion of demand for new energy vehicles in the past year or two. According to the statistics of market organization EV Volumes, in 2020, 3.24 million new energy vehicles were sold worldwide, up 43% year-on-year. The China market, where new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, has a greater demand for batteries. According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, from January to June this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China both exceeded 1.2 million, with a year-on-year increase of two times.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All-China Federation of Passengers, said that the forecast of battery demand in the automobile industry is far from the actual demand, which aggravated the impact of the "battery shortage". Wang Shijie, general manager of the first division of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, revealed: "The shortage of batteries has a great impact, and the completion rate of production and sales of key domestic OEMs is different from the completion of the annual task target."
SNE Research, a global emerging energy market research organization, predicts that by 2023, the global demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will reach 406 GWH, while the supply of power batteries is expected to be 335 GWH, with a gap of about 18%. By 2025, this gap will expand to about 40%.
Upstream:
Raw materials have risen in price due to shortage of supply.
Power batteries are in short supply, and battery raw materials are rising in price. Previously, Zeng Yuqun said frankly at the shareholders’ meeting: "The (current) rise in raw material prices has a greater impact on the company’s cost, but the extent to which (materials) need to be passed to the downstream is still under consideration."
Taking lithium carbonate as an example, it is an indispensable raw material for cathode materials and electrolyte of lithium batteries, and its price has also fluctuated greatly in the past year. At the same time, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has also increased. What is more noteworthy is that the resources of lithium, cobalt and nickel ore are mostly concentrated overseas and monopolized by Head Mining Group. The electrolyte capacity is insufficient and the expansion period is long, which leads to the fluctuation of battery raw material prices. Wang Shijie pointed out that the supply of raw materials and mineral resources in the upstream is difficult to achieve rapid expansion in the short term.
The problems of battery shortage and rising raw materials have begun to spread downstream. The reporter checked the market price and found that due to the price increase of battery raw materials, the cost of battery materials increased by about 25%~30% compared with the same period of last year, and the cost of the overall battery PACK (including pack) increased by about 15%-20%. Affected by rising costs, many battery suppliers have issued price adjustment letters this year, hoping to raise the battery price.
There are two ways to expand production capacity and new technology.
Crack 1: expand production or build your own factory
The reporter learned that in order to alleviate the "battery shortage", many power battery companies have officially announced the expansion of production. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited said that at present, the production capacity is being expanded, which will take 2-3 years and 3-5 years. Carmakers are also seeking changes, and self-built battery factories are the choice of some car companies with strong financial resources. For example, Tesla, BMW, BYD, etc. have participated in the battle for upstream lithium resources to achieve self-sufficiency in batteries. Automobile manufacturers that have not chosen to independently develop batteries also give priority to in-depth cooperation with battery suppliers to jointly establish battery factories. For example, Volkswagen announced on July 13th that it would cooperate with Guoxuan Hi-Tech to promote the industrial production of battery cells in Germany.
The data shows that there are nearly 300 solid-state battery-related enterprises in China, of which as many as 48% are established within 5 years, and only 20% are established for more than 15 years, which means that the mature development of battery industry still needs a process. In a short time, new energy vehicles will also face the situation that batteries are "robbed".
Crack 2: develop a new form of battery
In addition, more stable new forms of batteries are also being explored, such as solid-state batteries. Weilai Automobile took the lead in releasing the self-developed solid-state battery pack in June this year, which is expected to be commercialized in the fourth quarter of 2022. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also plans to release a solid-state battery named after "sodium ion" in July this year, but Zeng Yuqun admits that the real commercialization of solid-state batteries still has a long way to go. In this regard, LG Chem believes that all-solid-state batteries will be commercialized between 2025 and 2027; Panasonic will not launch electric vehicles using solid-state batteries until 2025. In addition, Volkswagen Group and BMW Group also believe that it will not be until 2025 to launch a prototype equipped with solid-state batteries.
Look to the future:
The supply chain will affect the survival of car companies.
The reporter recently visited the local new energy vehicle dealership and noticed that the current supply and price of new energy vehicles are still in a stable situation. However, the staff of direct stores of new brands such as "Wei Xiaoli" told reporters that if the supply of power batteries fails to ease, in the long run, the price of new energy vehicles will be firmer and the delivery time will be longer. For example, the model that was originally delivered in two months may be extended to four or five months.
Undoubtedly, the contradiction between the tight supply and price increase of upstream suppliers and the strong demand of downstream will inevitably gradually affect the output of new energy vehicles. For consumers, the most direct impact is that new cars cannot be mentioned as scheduled, or the price of some new cars is higher than before due to the tight supply of batteries. For car companies, the "battery shortage" not only hinders the pace of releasing new cars, but also affects their plans to deliver new cars, which is ultimately unfavorable to the overall revenue market.
In any case, from the "core shortage" to the "battery shortage", the battle for resources about the future of automobiles is constantly being staged. Finding a better supply chain solution and getting rid of the dilemma of being stuck in the neck is an urgent matter related to the survival and development of every car company.